Topline Findings
Wick, in partnership with Next Up with Mark Halperin, surveyed 500 likely voters in New York City from July 18–20, ahead of the city’s November 2025 mayoral election.
The results show Zohran Mamdani holding an early lead in a crowded field, potentially driven by perceptions that he best represents working families, challenges the status quo, and is most likely to put New York first.
At the same time, the race remains highly competitive. Mamdani’s advantage narrows significantly in head-to-head matchups, suggesting that if one of his challengers were to drop out and coalitions were to realign, the outcome could shift. Voter concerns about extreme ideology, experience, and the real-world impact of Mamdani’s proposals may also shape the contest in the months ahead.
👉 View the topline findings deck
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Mamdani Leads in Four-Way Race
In a four-way field, Mamdani leads with 39% of the vote:
- Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families): 39%
- Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver): 21%
- Curtis Sliwa (Republican): 18%
- Eric Adams (Incumbent, Safe Streets/Affordable City): 9%
- Undecided: 13%
Mamdani’s support is strongest among Democrats, where he earns 54%. Cuomo follows with 27%, while Adams receives just 4% support.
Among independents, the race is far more divided: Mamdani (23%), Sliwa (22%), Adams (22%), and Cuomo (19%) are clustered closely together.
Race Tightens in Head-to-Head Matchups
While Mamdani leads the four-way field, his advantage shrinks in direct matchups with individual opponents:
- Mamdani vs. Cuomo: 41% Mamdani, 42% Cuomo — a statistical tie
- Mamdani vs. Adams: Mamdani leads 47% to 37%
- Mamdani vs. Sliwa: Mamdani leads 53% to 35%
These results indicate that Mamdani’s lead is partly due to a split opposition. Should a challenger consolidate support—especially among independents and Republicans—the race could become much closer.
Voters See Mamdani as the Candidate of Change
Voters consistently associate Mamdani with ideas of change, fairness, and standing up to powerful interests—far more than any other candidate.
In a multi-select question on candidate attributes, voters most often associated Mamdani with themes of change, fairness, and challenging powerful interests. He leads on:
- Shaking up the system: 52%
- Standing up for working people: 49%
- Putting New York first: 39%
Mamdani also leads on having the best ideas to address affordability, with 43% selecting him—more than double the share of any other candidate.
Cuomo performs strongest on competence, with 44% of voters identifying him as the most experienced and capable. Adams and Sliwa trail across nearly all attributes.
Is NYC Ready for a Socialist Mayor?
Voters are closely divided on the idea of electing a socialist mayor:
- 46% support
- 44% oppose
- 10% are unsure
Two Competing Views of Mamdani’s Vision
At the end of the survey, voters were presented with two contrasting narratives and asked to select which one they agreed with more:
- 53% selected the anti-Mamdani message: “Zohran Mamdani's proposals might sound good, but he’s proposing a bunch of socialist ideas that don’t work in the real world. Free this, tax that—it sounds great until the bills come due. He says tax the rich and build everything for free—but that’s how cities scare off businesses, investment, and jobs. We’ve seen it in California, we’ve seen it overseas. It always ends with higher prices and fewer people sticking around.”
- 47% selected the pro-Mamdani message: “Zohran Mamdani is the only one talking about what regular New Yorkers actually care about—rent, groceries, the cost of the subway—while billionaires keep getting tax breaks. He’s not backed by big real estate or corporate donors and he’s willing to shake up a capitalist system that has failed everyone but the rich. We need someone who isn't pretending the same old politics will fix this at least he’s putting New York first.”
Methodology
This poll was conducted among 500 likely voters using a probability-based sample, fielded July 18–20, 2025. The margin of error is ±4.4%.
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