Virginia General Election Poll

Topline Findings

Wick, in partnership with the League of American Workers, surveyed 1,000 likely voters across Virginia from July 9–11, ahead of the 2025 general election.

The results indicate that Democrats hold an early edge in both major statewide races, buoyed by solid base consolidation, favorable crossover appeal, and majority support on key issues like reproductive rights.

However, the road ahead is far from settled. Both parties face low favorability ratings, and there are more undecided Republicans than Democrats in the electorate. With ongoing voter uncertainty around immigration and the economy, Republicans have room to close the gap—and may gain momentum as the race unfolds.

👉 Read the topline findings memo

👉 View the results

‍👉 View the crosstabs

Democrats Ahead in Early Matchups

In the governor’s race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 50% to 40%, with 7% undecided and a small number choosing an independent. In the attorney general contest, Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican Jason Miyares 48% to 41%, with 11% undecided.

Much of the Democratic lead appears tied to stronger base consolidation: Spanberger is supported by 95% of Democrats, while Earle-Sears is backed by 87% of Republicans.

Youngkin–Harris Voters Favor Democrats

A small but politically meaningful group of voters — those who supported Republican Glenn Youngkin for governor in 2021 but voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election — are currently leaning heavily toward the Democratic ticket in 2025. These crossover voters make up just 4% of the sample, but they could prove pivotal in a close race.

Among this group:

• Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 72% to 17% in the governor’s race
• Jones leads Miyares 58% to 18% in the attorney general contest, though 25% remain undecided
  

Mixed Views of Political Parties

Both political parties are viewed more negatively than positively by Virginia voters, but the intensity differs:

• The Republican Party is viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 57%, with 50% holding a “very unfavorable” view.
• The Democratic Party is also underwater, with 41% favorable and 55% unfavorable, though fewer voters feel strongly negative (44% very unfavorable).
  

Abortion and the Constitutional Amendment

A proposed constitutional amendment to protect the right to reproductive freedom, including abortion, has majority support:

• 57% say they would vote “Yes”
  32% would vote “No”
• 11% are undecided
  

However, voters are more divided on abortion in the third trimester:

• 18% say it should be legal in all cases
• 38% say it should be legal only if the mother’s life or health is at risk
• 36% say it should be illegal in most or all cases
  

Immigration and the “Big Beautiful Bill”

Immigration remains a sharply divisive issue in Virginia politics, particularly in light of the recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill” — a sweeping federal package that includes major expansions to immigration enforcement, tax policy, and deportation infrastructure.

Former President Donald Trump and Republican leaders receive majority credit for recent improvements on the southern border. When asked whether they deserve credit for a reported 95% decline in illegal border “gotaways” — individuals spotted crossing illegally but not apprehended — 56% of voters agreed, 23% disagreed, and the remainder were unsure. This suggests broad, if not overwhelming, recognition of Trump’s role in specific border outcomes.

However, support for the bill’s broader immigration provisions — described as "significantly increasing funding and deportation capacity" — is more divided:

• 44% said the increased immigration funding is good for the country
• 51% said the increased immigration funding bad for the country
  

Voters are also split on how the bill affects their personal finances:

• 32% believe it will help their household finances
• 42% say it will hurt them
• The rest — about 26% — say it will make no difference or are unsure
  

These findings highlight a key split in voter opinion: while many Virginians credit Republicans with delivering results on border security, there is clear discomfort with the scale and scope of the bill’s immigration and fiscal policies.

Cost-of-Living Tops Voter Concerns

When asked to name the most important issue facing Virginia, 43% of voters cited the cost of living — by far the top concern. The next most-mentioned issue, preserving democracy, trailed at 21%, followed by taxes and education (both at 8%) and immigration enforcement (6%).

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